Scottish Borders

The dramatic Scottish terrain.

The mischief of the reluctant rain.

The pines from the valley that stand tall with pride.

There is autumn in life, haven't we lost, haven't we cried.

Stripped the trees stand with the will to survive.

We embark knowing not if we shall arrive.

The merciless wind questions- what brings you here?

Voice of the loved ones brings the needed warmth to the ear.

The assurance comes from the hum & rattle of the beast.

Life is sure the greatest journey and mine started in the east.

-Sampreet

The monster called ‘Forecast’

Niels Henrik David Bohr - a Danish physicist one famously said – “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”.  A malapropism as it may seem; it inadvertently forces me to think about one of the most discussed topics in a company – the Forecast.

Forecast is a monster because of the sheer impact it has on almost all the segments of a company.  It is a monster that some companies manage to understand and tame better than others and draw direct results in the company’s bottom-line if not the top-line or both.

An inaccurate forecast can toss capacity plans, production plans, purchase plans, staffing plans, cost-working, working-capital requirements haywire overnight. An inaccurate forecast can lead to lost opportunities or huge losses. However some companies that build-to-order (start production after receiving a customer order, example-  Dell) are impacted less compared to those that build-to-stock (who produce in response to an anticipated forecast, example- Unilever).

It is important to note the following characteristics of forecasts:

1)      Forecasts always include two components: the expected value and the forecast error. The ‘expected value’ is simply put the most plausible estimate of future sales while the ‘forecast error’ is the deviation from the expected value (+ve or –ve) based on various factors such as seasonality, trend, market share movement, economic scenario etc.

2)      Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts; that is the long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error related to the mean than short-term forecasts.  In this sense sales forecasts aren’t very different from other things in life where near term predictions are more reliable than long term predictions.

3)      Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts; that is they have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.  It is easier to forecast the GDP of India than it is to forecast the revenues of a company. Likewise it is easier to forecast the revenue of a company than to forecast the sales of a single product from a portfolio of products that a company may have.

4)      The farther up a function is in the supply chain (or the farther it is from the customer), the greater is the distortion of information it receives. This is also called the Bullwhip effect where the order variation is amplified as the orders mover farther from the customer. As a result the farther up the function (example raw material sourcing) the larger is the forecast error.

There are numerous factors that a manager must take into account while forecasting and more importantly while choosing the forecasting methodology (maybe a topic for future discussions).  Some of these factors are

ü  Past Demand

ü  Past Forecast error

ü  Supply lead times for products

ü  Planned advertising campaigns

ü  Macro-economic environment

ü  Competition

As much as scientists would love to create a perpetual motion machine, they are hypothetical and would violate laws of thermodynamics. However the pursuit of these machines is popular in an effort to achieve the ‘as-near-as-possible’ to the ideal. Similarly there can be no such thing as a ‘Perfect Forecast’, but our pursuit of the same shouldn’t end. As a result we can achieve more accurate forecasts and more desirable bottom-lines.

The new work-force in your Organization: Gen-Y

Do you recognize the fact that a new work-force has entered your organization? – today’s 20-somethings often called Generation Y. Marketing departments in many industries take these demographic distinctions seriously in order to identify their specific needs and to speak to them in their language and connect with them better. But are organizations looking within to see and understand the demographics of their work force and appreciate the differences. After-all employee satisfaction is as important as customer satisfaction. So let us try to understand Gen-Y at the workplace.

Aspirations:

Gen Y is probably the first generation to have the kind of never-seen-before access to the world that it has. Also the world itself has been increasingly dynamic in the last few decades and this generation, thanks to the internet and telecom revolutions has had 'real-time' access to the world which is its prime differentiator from the previous generations. What the earlier generations had to pick up through personal contact, literature & guidance, this generation picks up through podcasts, social networking and the virtual world.

The speed and access to information (knowledge) has brought a tremendous amount of exposure, awareness and variety into the lives of Gen Y. This in my opinion has made us more vivid and individualistic than our previous generations. Hence the aspirations are more eclectic and individual centric than those that are family centric or community centric. The aspirations are beyond borders of any kind - they want to be more mobile, they want to develop skills that draw inspiration from various sources, they demand a wider choice and are specific about what they pick, there is a sense of impatience when it comes to progress and they want to achieve much more and much earlier than their predecessors.

Having been in India it would be incomplete to discuss the point about change in aspirations without factoring in the changes in the environment of this country. A growing India and the innumerable Indian success stories have given a boost to the morale and confidence to the young Indian. Today 20-Somethings are able to fathom their strength and look at the world as an opportunity and have the necessary creativity and the latitude to explore in order to excel. The question is no more 'how good you are?', the question now is "how better you are compared to yesterday'. Today's youth make role models of not those who persevered to succeed but those who shot up to success. It is not the Jack Wech’s or the Tatas that are looked up to anymore for inspiration but the founders of Google and Facebook.

There has also been a paradigm shift in the aspiration of power as I see that this generation now aspires influence and association rather than sheer raw power.

The Work-Place

The work environment has become increasingly important over years and many times takes precedence over many other benefits at the workplace. Global and cross cultural teams are a reality and Gen Y wants to be able to ignite ideas and move people across cultures and geographies. Gen Y also has a different view on time, they do not want to be bound by time or place, they are just as happy checking their blackberry mails on a weekend as long as they enjoy flexible works hours during the week. Many offices today have granted remote access to their employees and the youth prefers the flexibility. The only objective is to do something worth the while with the time they have.

Since place of work is less important today and people are often found job hopping, skill development has gained a lot more importance. The young work force while looking for challenging assignments to keep them stimulated is also looking for personal development which is again in line with the idea of individual centric aspirations. It isn't mere marketing or coincidence that has increased the number of executive MBA programs across the globe. Today's workforce is far more connected with the outside (outside the company) world than ever before and 'keeping-up-with-the-Jonses' has a lot of 'Jonses' to keep up with.

Todays' youth also seeks a collaborative work environment with a healthy disrespect for the authority of age. Latitude to experiment, freedom to decide and avenues to excel are far more important while material benefits are considered a given.

The Manager

People managers are but left with no choice but to be accommodating and appreciative of the Gen Y ways. Many managers understand the importance of this in order to keep their workforce motivated and focused towards the goal they want to achieve for their teams. The biggest example is the IT industry which has the largest workforce from Gen Y and has adapted best to get most out of their employees.

Managers today have to be clever and not just accommodate the ways of Gen Y but have to find ways to leverage the ways to realize the potential of their team. Today many companies while blocking access to popular social networking sites have created their own internal employee networking sites, because they understand that this generation depends on collaboration and communication and that can help in getting work done better and faster.

Many organizations have instant messengers because it is faster, easier and a comfortable mode of communication for Gen Y. Many managers have learned to be more liberal about monitoring the work-times of employees and in return have gained extended hours of support from their employees even during off hours/days creating a win-win situation.

Managers also have to learn to adopt technology as fast as Gen Y and future generations in order to keep pace and reach out to them in their language. Companies today have set up virtual classrooms and innovative training material over podcasts and webinars.

This Generation of the work-force is visibly and starkly different for the earlier generations and an Organization would do well to recognize and appreciate this difference and consciously work towards developing systems, mechanisms & policies to inspire, motivate and make the most of the strengths of this young, vibrant and dynamic generation.

PROJECT RISKS

To begin with let us understand what a project is. Any proposal that will result in the use of scarce resources of a firm is a project. Thus, everything from a new product launch to shifting of the office falls within the definition of a project. Any project being considered must go through the stages of assessment, analysis and approval before it goes into the execution stage. One of the most important implications and considerations of a project proposal is its Cost to the firm.

A firm may have many sources of funds (example: Bank Loans, Promoter Funds, Cash Reserves etc.) with different rates for cost-of –capital. For simplicity sake, let us imagine a single pool of funds available to the firm at a single rate of cost-of –capital. A firm with a cost-of-capital of 10% will have to ensure it earns more than 10% and hence ensure that all the projects undertaken put together help the company in doing so.

The cost-of-capital for a project is directly linked with the degree of risk that the project carries. Projects that are riskier have to be assessed with a higher cost-of-capital than projects that are safer, i.e to assess if the risky project can earn higher returns to payback for the high cost-of-capital (which may be set much higher than 10%).

The risk in a project may come from many sources, such as the industry, government regulations, international considerations or even the project itself. The different sources of risk for a project can be:

1) Project Risk: An individual project may have higher or lower returns than expected, either because the analyst misestimated or because of project specific factors. For example, the returns from a new product launch are lower because of an un-foreseen quality issue with the product.

2) Competitive Risk: This risk emerges from the actions of the competitors that may affect the firm’s returns (favorably or unfavorably). For example, sales of the new product are lower than expected as the competitor dropped the prices of their products.

3) Industry Risk: These are factors that affect the returns of a specific industry and thus all projects considered within the industry will be exposed to this risk. Industry Risk can further be classified into three types of industry risks.

a. Technology Risk: Drastic changes in technologies compared to that while the project was analyzed can have a huge impact on the returns of the project. The sudden change in technology can immediately bring down the market prices of a product or result in a complete shift in customer preferences.

b. Legal Risk: This reflects the affect of changing laws in the operating regulatory environment. This is more prominent in the pharmaceutical industry.

c. Commodity Risk: This reflects the effects of changing prices of commodities and services that are used in a specific industry. For example, the product launch project could earn lower than expected returns due to a sudden surge in raw material prices.

4) International Risk: A project faces this kind of risk if it is international in nature and implementation is in a different country, where the cash flows (or costs) will be in a different currency. The project may also face challenges due to dynamic international relations between nations.

5) Market Risk: This source of risk affects all firms and all projects and emerges out of macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, economic growth and investor confidence etc.

Hence it is critically important that any project being considered is put through a comprehensive risk assessment exercise. This will help in arriving at a realistic assessment of returns and also in developing a contingency plan for different scenarios.

It is perhaps apt at this point to also mention that, it isn’t that pessimism, skepticism or risk aversion makes one a sound analyst. The point is to be aware of all the risks while making a project decision.

A project may be seen as a sky dive, there are obviously many risks but by knowing them well and preparing for them, we can still make a perfect landing. Higher risks often come with higher returns and hence the trick is in taking well calculated risks.

Leadership, Networking and Entrepreneurship

 

Haven’t we all at sometime or the other been told: “you are too young to do that”, “you have to grow up” or “you are not strong enough”? Every child has been told this at some point in time or the other.

Can you imagine what we would have missed should Sachin Tendulkar have paid heed to such a talk.

27^th of September was a historic day for the alumni of the first and the largest B-School set up within the IIT system: Vinod Gupta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur when they had met up at the chinnaswamy stadium in Bangalore to commemorate 15 years of the B-School. They had interestingly chosen “Leadership, Networking and Entrepreneurship” as the theme for the day and this is because they were standing at an interesting point in time:

The B-School has completed 15 years and though it has achieved many a feat, that most B-schools take decades to achieve, it is a young institution set up within the oldest and the biggest IIT (Kharagpur).

As Indians they are in a time about 15-18 years since the liberalization of the Indian economy, which too is at an inflection point and looking forward to becoming a super power.

As individuals they are well qualified and had all spent 15 or fewer years in the industry are about mid-way towards their glorious careers.

It is also a point in time when the economic world order is moving east and people are talking less about the American Dream and more about the emergence of India.

It is also a point in time when the qualified Indian youth is slowly moving over from seeking secure government jobs to becoming successful entrepreneurs.

Hence the meet with its timing was just apt with the IITians who have traditionally produced many entrepreneurs (so much so, that a couple of students from the yet to graduate batch have already taken the entrepreneurial plunge) and members of LeadCap brainstormed about the dynamic relationship between networking, leadership and entrepreneurship.   The IIT alumni network around the world has time and again showcased their commitment towards their Alma matter through initiatives such as PanIIT annual World conference. They have shown us how to stay connected and well networked and are arguably the strongest alumni network amongst the Indian Institutions. They believe in embracing, supporting and mentoring fellow alumni and also committing time, efforts and resources for further strengthening of such nation building institutions as the IITs. It is this very same commitment that resulted in the birth of VGSOM 15 years ago with the help of an endowment from an IIT entrepreneur: Mr. Vinod Gupta. It is these networking capabilities that get the students of this B-School annual invitation to meet Mr. Warren Buffet and attend the annual shareholders meeting of Berkshire Hathaway.

 

Entrepreneurship requires a lot of passion, hard work, support and a little bit of luck. Jerry Collins in his book “Built to last” said most visionary companies that have thrived for decades were not born of a great Idea, but out of sheer passion and commitment to build organizations. I have always believed that resources including funding are only secondary concern and what is needed the most is the talent, passion and some mentoring. So with the myth of a great idea and the concern for material resources out of the way what is now required is leadership in the form of conviction, passion, skills and talent and also support from the eco-system in the form of mentoring and maybe even resources. The later is greatly influenced by the networking capabilities of the leader, which brings us back to a strong alumni network and creation of a community that nurtures its members and fosters mutual growth which inevitably results in the overall growth, recognition and prosperity of the community. This also has been the story of brand IIT and the IIT community which sets an example for the rest of India.

 

When an individual, institution or a nation has the youth and agility of a hare along with the maturity and wisdom of a sage it is destined to grow leaps and bounds. This is true about India with its young population and the tradition of knowledge and culture. This is true about VGSOM with its youthful students, distinguished professors and the great parent institution of IIT Kharagpur. This is also true about a strong alumni network where the young and the recent alumni with all the talent and passion can choose to achieve great feats with the support, wisdom and mentoring from the older alumni. This is the kind of movement that was envisioned during the discussion amongst the IITians and LeadCap. A movement towards building individual leadership capabilities, a movement towards institution building and creating an eco-system that breeds leaders and finally, a movement towards that larger goal of Nation Building.

 

                                                                                       

 

 

 

Connoisseur and Curator of History 

 Short is a man’s life and shorter is his memory. The world is blessed with wonders and marvels for those who have an eye for them. It is also blessed with enough men and women with the ability to create and re-create history. But given our short lives and shorter memories, how do we preserve and appreciate those moments that were turning points, those events that made an impact and those men who influenced the world?

History needs two contributors: the creator and the preserver and without the two it either never gets created or dies an undeserving death. The world is quite appreciative of the creator and honours him well, but often tends to forget the expedient for being able to admire and appreciate the creator. I salute those connoisseurs, collectors and curators of history who have dedicated their lives to preserving so that posterity can relish the marvels of history.

I had the rare fortune of a glimpse through decades and centuries preserved by one of India’s greatest collectors and promoters of art, culture and history: Mr. H.K.Kejriwal.  A multi-faceted man, who has lived many lives within one and one who has truly been there and seen it all. He has been a successful business man and also has built institutions such as the Karnataka Chitrakala Parishath. A man, who has conferred with the highest echelons of the society at one hand and on the other, continuously strived to make a difference to those at the bottom of the pyramid. The journey of his life, where he crossed paths with many greats like the Kennedys, Gandhis, Birlas, Wadias, Tatas, nobel laureates and many great artists and nation builders, awe-inspiring as it maybe has also been well captured and preserved. How many of us will be lucky enough to get sight of the last letter written by Tagore or hand-written letters by Gandhi, or ancient mogul masterpieces of art? Not many. But for the men like Mr. H.K.Kejriwal even the lucky few wouldn’t have the privilege and fortune. It takes immense efforts, dedication, skill and a generous and kind heart to preserve for future generations. To him, it is about giving back to the society and nation while expecting nothing in return as he is a firm believer in this John F. Kennedy  quote “ask not what the country can do for you, ask what you can do for the country”. He not only has a huge personal collection of ancient artifacts, paintings and sculptures some of them dating back to 2-3 B.C, but has donated many to create a great institution of art and culture and a vibrant community called the Karnataka Chitrakala Parishath in Bangalore.

    George Santayana once said “Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it”. Hence those who have observed and studied history are wiser and bound to make fewer mistakes. In the pursuit of wisdom, studying history doesn’t mean immersing oneself in the depths of the ancient world. History can also mean a day ago and hours ago and studying it means closely watching the course that the world is taking. It is this realization that gets this modern age sage to read as many as 9 newspapers a day and keep abreast with the NOW. The bookshelf of this extremely well learned man has space alike for the oldest of the philosophical books and the latest of the modern day management books giving him the widest breadth of knowledge that can dazzle anybody.

   Many of us with not so important engagements and not so great achievements often complain about the busy life we lead and how “time flies by”. Many of us complain about the busy metro life we lead and the time we don’t get even to stand for a moment and introspect. But here is a living example of a man who lived the life of a successful businessman, connoisseur, philanthropist, mentor, an institution builder, thinker and even a jockey(who has won a gold medal) and yet had the time to preserve TIME and HISTORY. A poet once said "time taketh away" and the collectors like him are at battle with time to preserve. I wish this hero great health, long life and all the success with the numerous plans he has for future including his vision for a primary school in every village.

  

 

Taare Zameen Par (movie review):

Cast: Amir Khan

Darsheel Safary
Tisca chopra

The movie that starts slowly, building the character of a young boy (ishan awasthi) who seems lost in his own world and is able to make little of the world around him. Some of the boy’s mischief and folly would remind you of your own, in the days of your childhood and bring a smile on to your face, while others would only make you think of him as a the little rascal, he was thought to be by his parents and teachers. The story progresses very slowly throughout the first half of the movie leaving you wondering if you were watching a TV serial about the a stubborn kid and the troubles he gives his parents without a glimpse of Amir Khan yet. Ishan is unable to perform on the regular yard-stick by which all children are measured and is unable to read and write like the other children of his age.

Whether it is the Kid’s anger, tears, laughter(very few moments), mischief, helplessness, anxiety, frustration, insecurity or the parent’s Tension, anger, feeling of helplessness, love, expectations from their child, the movie does connect in part or full with each one of our lives. A movie in its first half has no demarcation between the right and the wrong and would leave you sympathizing with the parents and the child equally and wondering what could be set right to help the child and the parents. The parents then unable to solve the problem themselves and fearing a bleak future for ishan in an uncompromisingly competitive world send him to a boarding school hoping that he would be straightened there. The moment when Ishan is sent to the boarding school is accompanied with a background score that is so touching and emotional, that it sure will bring tears in every eye.

For a star of the stature and alleged ego-centric attitude of Amir Khan I guess it was easy to make an entry in slow motion covering all of 75mm and pretending like he is on a ramp and rightly expect for the audience to cheer, scream and whistle, but a serious and a great story-teller that he proved to be pops in at the fag end of the first half with a gibberish rhyme and dressed as a clown leaving the children in his classroom and in the theatres absolutely amused. Ram Shankar Nikumbh [Aamir Khan] who comes to the boarding school as a temporary Art teacher infuses the atmosphere with enthusiasm, joy and fun and becomes an instant hit among the children who were hitherto in an environment of stiff competition, enormous work and strict discipline. Ram Shankar encourages children to think out of the box, set their minds and imaginations free and notices that while every child is excited about him and his methods, Ishan sits quit and refuses to respond or even paint when asked to do so. Ram Shankar spots a problem with the kid and enquires about him and having been a dyslexic himself, desperately wants to help out the kid before the kid breaks down. And then on it’s a movie about how Ram Shankar nurtures this naturally enthusiastic and interesting but now an indolent kid and puts the smile and confidence back on his face and also provides him with tailor-made mentoring with his innovative pedagogy. He not only identifies the child’s strengths and encourages him to further pursue them but also puts him on the track of success and makes him able of facing competition. The movie teaches a lesson or two to the parents of today who overburden their children with pressure of competition and want their children to go through a life of pre-determined patterns towards “success”. It urges the parents to identify the strengths and weaknesses of their child and to accordingly mentor and help them to become able grown-ups.
In all it is an outstanding movie and marks the birth of a great story teller: Amir Khan who yet again proves is mantle with his perfectionist attitude and an uncanny eye for stories with such substance and depth. Amir Khan I reckon may not go down in the history books as the biggest human brand or the actor with most movies or most crores for a movie, but is sure to go down the history books as one of the greatest and a very intellectual artist of our times.
Darsheel who plays Ishan has put up a brilliant performance and may very well pick up a few awards coming season and Amir too will surely be showered with immense appreciation for his directorial debut. This movie is a must watch for every kid, parent and every parent-to-be. It is not just entertaining but a very enlightening movie that will also help you realize how shallow and rubbish are the hundreds of mediocre movies we are so used to watching.